MUNICH — President Biden and his top aides acknowledge that they are risking American credibility as they constantly renew the alarm that Russia is only “several days” away from triggering a land war in Europe that could plunge the world back into something resembling the Cold War.
But Mr. Biden’s aides say they are willing to take that risk.
They would rather be accused of hyperbole and fearmongering than be proven right, they say, if that’s what it takes to deter President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia from pursuing an invasion that they worry will not stop at Ukraine’s borders.
“If Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine, then we will be relieved that Russia changed course and proved our predictions wrong,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said at the United Nations Security Council on Thursday.
Mr. Biden and Mr. Blinken make no secret of their suspicion that their efforts to deter calamity are likely to fail. And their pessimism was reinforced Thursday by a series of escalations.
The United States’ assessment of what Mr. Putin is doing has also changed over time.
After the Russian leader issued a proposed “treaty” in December, it seemed that he had a bigger plan: to evict the United States and NATO forces from former Soviet bloc nations that have joined NATO and roll back the world order created after the Soviet collapse 31 years ago.
Then, two weeks ago, intelligence and military officials said that Mr. Putin was aiming at Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, after concluding that cyberattacks and subversion alone were unlikely to displace the government — only a full-scale invasion would do that.
So the Biden administration is trying to test Mr. Putin’s bottom line.
