After a seven-week falling streak, mortgage rates reversed course, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed home loan now around 6.7%.
This week, investors are holding out for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate forecast, while concerns over a potential recession and uncertain trade policies keep pressure on financial markets. Mortgage rates, linked to the bond market, have been wavering due to President Trump’s on-and-off-again tariffs, stock market swings and geopolitical uncertainty.
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The central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday — though sticky inflation, increased unemployment and slowing economic growth could force the Fed to cut rates in late spring or early summer. Reductions to the benchmark federal funds rate will indirectly lower other consumer borrowing rates, like mortgages, over the long term.
Fannie Mae projects mortgage rates to stay above 6.5% for the better part of the year. Yet lenders base their rates on a range of factors, and no forecast is set in stone. Given the precarious nature of the economy, any sign of risk or disruption could change the trajectory of mortgage rates.
For example, if an economic downturn appears likely, mortgage rates could start decreasing, but they would need to drop closer to 5.5% to bring buyers into the market at scale, according to Alex Thomas, senior research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting.
While cheaper home loan rates are positive for housing affordability, a shaky economy could keep the housing market frozen. “If lower mortgage rates are the result of a recession, housing demand could remain muted,” said Thomas.
