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Russia Could Invade Ukraine at Any Time, U.S. Says
Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, warned that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could launch a major assault on Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, but said that Mr. Putin had not reached a final decision yet.
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“We are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time should Vladimir Putin decide to order it. I will not comment on the details of our intelligence information, but I do want to be clear: It could begin during the Olympics. We encourage all American citizens who remain in Ukraine to depart immediately. We want to be crystal clear on this point. Any American in Ukraine should leave as soon as possible and in any event, in the next 24 to 48 hours. We obviously cannot predict the future. We don’t know exactly what is going to happen, but the risk is now high enough and the threat is now immediate enough that this is what prudence demands. If you stay, you are assuming risk with no guarantee that there will be any other opportunity to leave, and there — no prospect of a U.S. military evacuation in the event of a Russian invasion.” Reporter: “Does the United States believe that the president — pardon me — that President Putin has made a decision because PBS NewsHour just reported a little bit ago that the United States does believe that Putin has made a decision, and has also communicated that decision to the Russian military. Is that accurate?” “The report that you just referenced, which I have not seen yet, it does not accurately capture what the U.S. government’s view is today. Our view is that we do not believe he has made any kind of final decision or we don’t know that he has made any final decision, and we have not communicated that to anybody.”
President Biden plans to speak with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Saturday in a bid to defuse the crisis over Ukraine, with Washington warning that Moscow could mount a major assault on Ukraine at any time.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken also said that he would speak with Sergey V. Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, on Saturday to press for Russia to pull back the land, sea and air forces it has built up on three sides of Ukraine, and to engage in diplomacy to resolve what has grown into one of the gravest security threats in Europe since the Cold War.
“We’re in the window when a Russian invasion can start at any time if President Putin so decides,” Mr. Blinken told reporters on Saturday in Fiji, where he was on a weeklong tour of the Pacific.
U.S. intelligence officials had thought Mr. Putin was prepared to wait until the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing before possibly ordering an offensive, to avoid antagonizing President Xi Jinping of China, a critical ally. In recent days, they say, the timeline began moving up, an acceleration that Biden administration officials began publicly acknowledging on Friday.
“We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border,” Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, told reporters, adding that an invasion could begin “during the Olympics,” which are scheduled to end on Feb. 20.
U.S. officials do not know whether Mr. Putin has decided to invade, Mr. Sullivan insisted. “We are ready either way,” he said. “Whatever happens next, the West is more united than it has been in years.”
The United States has picked up intelligence that Russia is discussing next Wednesday as the target date for the start of military action, officials said, acknowledging the possibility that mentioning a particular date could be part of a Russian disinformation effort.
The combination of the Russian troop movements and the new information about a possible date helped to trigger the flurry of diplomatic activity and public warnings by the NATO allies on Friday.
Mr. Blinken said that U.S. officials continued to see “very troubling signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border.”
Border with Russian units
KAZAKHSTAN
Russian units
SEA OF
AZOV
Transnistria, a
Russian-backed
breakaway region
of Moldova.
Russia invaded and
annexed the Crimean
Peninsula from
Ukraine in 2014.
Approximate line
separating Ukrainian and
Russian-backed forces near
two breakaway provinces.
Border with
Russian units
Russian
units
Russia annexed
the Crimean
Peninsula from
Ukraine in 2014.
Transnistria, a
Russian-backed
breakaway region
of Moldova.
Approximate line
separating Ukrainian
and Russian-backed
forces.
The United States has ruled out sending troops to defend Ukraine but has increased deployments to NATO member countries in Eastern Europe, and on Friday the Pentagon ordered 3,000 more soldiers to Poland.
The Kremlin said that the conversation with Mr. Biden would be at the White House’s request; the White House spokesman, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations, said the Kremlin had suggested a call on Monday and that the White House proposed a call sooner, on Saturday. The Kremlin said Mr. Putin would also speak again on Saturday with President Emmanuel Macron of France.
