Put most simply, there is a tangible risk of recession, or at least stagnation, arising from the cost of living crisis. May’s GDP figures due on Wednesday will show that the economy is on course to shrink in this quarter. Cabinet ministers vying for Number 10 are now openly embracing the forecasts showing the UK with the worst forecasts for growth next year (among advanced economies) – the same forecasts that were played down last year. Those forecasts are now being marshalled as an argument for a stimulus.
