Russia Is Urged to Rejoin Grain Deal as Hunger Warnings Mount

World leaders on Sunday urged Russia to reconsider its suspension of an agreement that allowed the export of grain trapped by the war in Ukrainian ports, warning that Moscow’s decision could unleash dire consequences on a hungry planet.

In the short term, experts said Sunday, Russia’s action could prompt a rise in global grain prices when markets open on Monday. That would be particularly painful for countries whose governments lack the means to subsidize basic foodstuffs.

But should Russia stick to the decision and continue blocking shipments from Ukraine, one of the world’s biggest food exporters, the experts said, the effects will almost certainly be profound. The suspension threatens to stall more than 9.5 million tons of grain and other foodstuffs, according to the United Nations office that oversees the agreement.

That could “spell considerable trouble not only for the neediest countries on the continent, but also even for the bigger countries where the cost of living has become a potent political issue,” said Murithi Mutiga, Africa program director at the International Crisis Group.

In announcing its withdrawal from the agreement on Saturday, Russia cited what it said was a flurry of seagoing drone assaults by Ukraine on its fleet in the Black Sea. But in fact, the Kremlin long ago made known its unhappiness with the grain deal reached in July.

Russian officials have complained that despite the agreement, they have struggled to export their own agricultural products because Western sanctions imposed after the Ukraine invasion have scared ports, insurers, banks and other businesses away from doing business with Moscow.

On Sunday, as world leaders tried to persuade Moscow to reverse course, the office of the United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, said that one of his objectives was “removing the remaining obstacles to the exports of Russian food and fertilizer.”

Mr. Guterres postponed travel to an Arab League summit so he could instead “engage in intense contacts” over Russia’s grain-deal decision, his office said. And the Russian state media reported that officials from Turkey were in touch by phone with Russian officials “at all levels” over the fate of the agreement, which had been a major coup for the Turkish government.

Some analysts suggested Russia’s suspension of the deal had largely to do with its setbacks on the Ukrainian battlefield, which have weakened its hand.

“Putin needs leverage as things go south for him on the battlefields in Ukraine, so the threat of a global food crisis needs to be put back in the Russian toolbox of coercion and blackmail,” Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on Twitter.

But the tactic, he said, could backfire by antagonizing two important Kremlin allies: Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Turkey was a major international player in brokering the grain deal and provided the site where exports from Ukraine underwent international inspection by officials from Ukraine, Russia and the United Nations. And Saudi Arabia worries that a worsening global food crisis could fuel instability in the Middle East.

The Russian announcement was met with sharp condemnation around the world, prompting renewed accusations that Moscow was using food as a weapon.

“It’s really outrageous to increase starvation,” President Biden said in Delaware after he cast his ballot on Saturday in the midterm elections.

His secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, said Russia’s move would take an outsize toll on lower-income countries that depended on Ukrainian products like wheat, corn and sunflower oil.

“In suspending this arrangement, Russia is again weaponizing food in the war it started, directly impacting low- and middle-income countries and global food prices, and exacerbating already dire humanitarian crises and food insecurity,” Mr. Blinken said in a statement. “We urge all parties to keep this essential, lifesaving initiative functioning.”

The impact could be particularly severe in the Horn of Africa, where civil war, climatic extremes and the economic disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic have exacerbated already acute food shortages. In nations like Ethiopia — where a two-year civil war has left an estimated 5.2 million people facing severe hunger — the deliveries made under the current deal have not come close to meeting the population’s needs.

“You had hoped for a much more ramped-up state of delivery rather than a cancellation of the deal,” said Mr. Mutiga of the International Crisis Group. “The African continent is paying a very high price.”

Moscow has argued that much of the grain freed up by the deal was being shipped to wealthy countries, not those that need it the most. U.N. officials have said that many of the ships carried grain purchased under commercial contracts, which plays a role in stabilizing the market, even if the shipments do not go directly to nations facing food shortages.

And officials say the stoppage will hurt poorer nations directly. The organization overseeing the grain deal said there was no movement of vessels in the corridor on Sunday. It said there were currently 21 vessels engaged in the grain initiative in or near three Ukrainian ports, including one loaded with 30,000 metric tons of wheat as part of an emergency response in the Horn of Africa.

Russia’s ambassador to Washington, Anatoly Antonov, rejected what he described as “false accusations that our country is exacerbating the global food problem.”

Ukraine, he said, bears responsibility for the suspension.

Russia said Saturday that it was suspending its participation because Ukrainian attacks against its Black Sea Fleet’s ships and infrastructure — including drone strikes that damaged a mine-sweeping vessel in the port of Sevastopol — threatened the security of its ships involved in the initiative.

“We cannot turn a blind eye to security issues and continue working,” Mr. Antonov said in a statement released by the Russian Embassy in Washington. “It is unfair to condemn Russia in suspending the implementation of the deal. This happened because of the reckless actions by the Ukrainian authorities.”

On Sunday, Russia claimed it had recovered the wreckage of sea drones used to attack its Black Sea fleet in occupied Crimea a day earlier. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that data on the drones’ navigation systems showed they had been launched from the Ukrainian coast near Odesa and traveled through an area of the Black Sea designated for the transit of foodstuffs under the grain deal.

No images or other evidence was provided to support the ministry’s assertions.

Russia also hinted that the grain might start moving again.

“We have announced the suspension of our participation in the deal — not the withdrawal, but suspension,” its deputy foreign minister, Andrey Rudenko, said Sunday.

But he said any discussion about the Ukraine grain agreement would be possible only after the U.N. Security Council holds a meeting on the attack on the Black Sea ships.

Ukrainian officials have not commented publicly on Saturday’s attack, in line with a policy of official ambiguity about such strikes.

But it appeared to be the most recent example of Ukrainian forces hitting sensitive Russian sites from afar, illustrating how powerful weapons provided by Western nations have significantly expanded Ukraine’s battlefield capabilities.

Maritime drones were among the items sent by Western nations to Ukraine, though officials have been extraordinarily secretive about the robot-controlled boats.

U.S. officials said on Sunday that the United States had not assisted with the attack on Sevastopol or provided Ukraine with the intelligence to carry it out. They spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Reporting was contributed by Lara Jakes, Julian E. Barnes Neil MacFarquhar, Matthew Mpoke Bigg and Cassandra Vinograd.