Russia’s war in Ukraine is now fought in two largely separate arenas: ground battles in the south and east, and a contest between Ukraine’s air defense systems and Russia’s cruise missiles and drones aimed at electrical infrastructure. Military analysts say the infrastructure-targeting campaign is intended to demoralize Ukrainians and push their government into a cease-fire that might allow Russia time to regroup and rearm for future offensives.
Since October, Russia has fired volleys of missiles and drones at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in intervals of roughly a week to 10 days, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence chief. Most volleys have included around 75 missiles.
That tempo is likely set based on Russia’s weapons supply, Britain’s defense intelligence agency said on Saturday.
“Russia has likely limited its long-range missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure to around once a week due to the limited availability of cruise missiles,” the agency said in its daily update. “Similarly, Russia is unlikely to have increased its stockpile of artillery munitions enough to enable large-scale offensive operations.”
For weeks, Ukrainian officials have expressed concern that Russian forces could use neighboring Belarus as a launchpad for a new ground offensive, with Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, a potential target.
But the director of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said in an interview with The New York Times on Friday that while the possibility could not be entirely ruled out, a recent flurry of Russian military activity in Belarus was an attempt by Moscow to trick Ukraine into diverting soldiers from the active front line in the southeast of the country.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group, also said in its latest report that there was no evidence that Russia was preparing a strike force in Belarus, and that a renewed invasion from the country was “unlikely” this winter.
Russian forces have “been much more clearly setting conditions for an offensive” in the northwestern part of the Luhansk region, the institute said, citing increased transport of Russian military equipment and personnel to the area.
Andrew E. Kramer contributed reporting.
