A few significant mortgage rates moved up over the last seven days. The average interest rates for both 15-year fixed and 30-year fixed mortgages headed upward. At the same time, average rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages declined.
After hiking interest rates 10 times since March 2022, the Federal Reserve pumped the brakes during its June meeting. The central bank’s benchmark federal funds rate will remain at a range of 5.00% to 5.25% for the time being, although the Fed hasn’t ruled out the possibility of further increases if inflation doesn’t continue to moderate.
As long as inflation continues to trend downward, experts say a pause in rate hikes from the Fed could bring some stability to today’s volatile mortgage rate market.
Mortgages hit a 20-year high in late 2022, but now the macroeconomic environment is changing again. Rates dipped significantly in January before climbing back up in February. Aside from a brief surge toward the end of May, rates continue to fluctuate in the 6% to 7% range.
Even though the Fed hit pause on rate hikes, mortgage interest rates will continue to fluctuate on a daily basis. That’s because mortgage rates aren’t tied to the federal funds rate in the same way other products are, such as home equity loans and home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs. Mortgage rates respond to a variety of economic factors, including inflation, employment and the broader outlook for the economy.
“Mortgage rates will continue to ebb and flow week to week, but ultimately, I think rates will stick to that 6% to 7% range we’re seeing now,” says Jacob Channel, senior economist at loan marketplace LendingTree. “I don’t anticipate them to spike or even show a sustained spike following this meeting,” Channel says.
Overall, inflation remains high but has been slowly, but consistently, falling every month since it peaked in June 2022.
After raising rates dramatically in 2022, the Fed opted for smaller, 25-basis-point increases in its first three meetings of 2023. The decision to hold rates steady on June 14 suggests that inflation is cooling and ongoing rate hikes may no longer be necessary to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target. The central bank is unlikely to cut rates any time soon, but positive signaling from the Fed and cooling inflation may ease some of the upward pressure on mortgage rates.
“Rates are getting to a point of being steady. So, it’s more a question of how long it will take for rates to start ticking back down and when inflation will return to a place where your dollar starts buying a little bit more each month,” said Kevin Williams, founder of Full Life Financial Planning.
However, mortgage rates remain well above where they were a year ago. Fewer buyers are willing to jump into the housing market, driving demand down and causing home prices in some regions to ease, but that’s only part of the home affordability equation.
“Interest rates have been much higher in the past and people bought homes and financed homes at those rates. But it’s been hard for people to react to such a rapid increase in just a short amount of time,” says Daniel Oney, research director at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. “Everybody had a target for how much they needed to save in order to go into the housing market, but when interest rates increased, those goal posts moved too,” he added.
What does this mean for homebuyers this year? Mortgage rates are likely to decrease slightly in 2023, although they’re highly unlikely to return to the rock-bottom levels of 2020 and 2021. However, rate volatility may continue for some time. “Expect mortgage rates to yo-yo up and down in the first half of the year, at least until there is a consensus about when the Fed will conclude raising interest rates,” says Greg McBride, CFA and chief financial analyst at Bankrate. McBride expects rates to fall more consistently as the year progresses. “Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates will end the year near 5.25%,” he predicts.
Rather than worrying about market mortgage rates, homebuyers should focus on what they can control: getting the best rate they can for their situation.
“The most important thing is that they find the right home. The second most important thing is obviously to find the most efficient way to finance it,” says Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage.
Take steps to improve your credit score and save for a down payment to increase your odds of qualifying for the lowest rate available. Also, be sure to compare the rates and fees from multiple lenders to get the best deal. Looking at the annual percentage rate, or APR, will show you the total cost of borrowing and help you compare apples to apples.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 7.08%, which is an increase of 9 basis points from seven days ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) Thirty-year fixed mortgages are the most frequently used loan term. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage will usually have a smaller monthly payment than a 15-year one — but often a higher interest rate. Although you’ll pay more interest over time — you’re paying off your loan over a longer timeframe — if you’re looking for a lower monthly payment, a 30-year fixed mortgage may be a good option.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.48%, which is an increase of 8 basis points from seven days ago. Compared to a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year fixed mortgage with the same loan value and interest rate will have a higher monthly payment. However, if you’re able to afford the monthly payments, there are several benefits to a 15-year loan. You’ll usually get a lower interest rate, and you’ll pay less interest in total because you’re paying off your mortgage much quicker.
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages
A 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage has an average rate of 6.09%, a slide of 4 basis points from seven days ago. For the first five years, you’ll typically get a lower interest rate with a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage compared to a 30-year fixed mortgage. But you might end up paying more after that time, depending on the terms of your loan and how the rate changes with the market rate. For borrowers who plan to sell or refinance their house before the rate changes, an ARM may be a good option. If not, shifts in the market might significantly increase your interest rate.
Mortgage rate trends
Mortgage rates were historically low throughout most of 2020 and 2021 but increased steadily throughout 2022. Now, mortgage rates are roughly twice what they were a year ago, pushed up by persistently high inflation. That high inflation prompted the Fed to raise its target federal funds rate seven times in 2022. By raising rates, the Fed makes it more expensive to borrow money and more appealing to keep money in savings, suppressing demand for goods and services.
Mortgage interest rates don’t move in lockstep with the Fed’s actions in the same way that, say, rates for a home equity line of credit do. But they do respond to inflation. As a result, cooling inflation data and positive signals from the Fed will influence mortgage rate movement more than the most recent 25-basis-point rate hike.
We use rates collected by Bankrate to track rate changes over time. This table summarizes the average rates offered by lenders across the US:
Current average mortgage interest rates
| Loan type | Interest rate | A week ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed rate | 7.08% | 6.99% | +0.09 |
| 15-year fixed rate | 6.48% | 6.40% | +0.08 |
| 30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 7.13% | 7.01% | +0.12 |
| 30-year mortgage refinance rate | 7.20% | 7.15% | +0.05 |
Rates as of June 23, 2023.
How to shop for the best mortgage rate
You can get a personalized mortgage rate by connecting with your local mortgage broker or using an online calculator. Make sure to think about your current finances and your goals when searching for a mortgage.
A range of factors — including your down payment, credit score, loan-to-value ratio and debt-to-income ratio — will all affect the interest rate on your mortgage. Having a higher credit score, a higher down payment, a low DTI, a low LTV or any combination of those factors can help you get a lower interest rate.
The interest rate isn’t the only factor that affects the cost of your home. Be sure to also consider other factors such as fees, closing costs, taxes and discount points. Make sure you speak with multiple lenders — for example, local and national banks, credit unions and online lenders — and comparison shop to find the best mortgage loan for you.
What’s the best loan term?
When picking a mortgage, you should consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 years and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. Mortgages are further divided into fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages. For fixed-rate mortgages, interest rates are stable for the life of the loan. Unlike a fixed-rate mortgage, the interest rates for an adjustable-rate mortgage are only set for a certain amount of time (typically five, seven or 10 years). After that, the rate fluctuates annually based on the market interest rate.
One important factor to think about when choosing between a fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage is how long you plan on living in your home. Fixed-rate mortgages might be a better fit for people who plan on staying in a home for a while. Fixed-rate mortgages offer greater stability over time compared to adjustable-rate mortgages, but adjustable-rate mortgages might offer lower interest rates upfront. If you don’t have plans to keep your new house for more than three to 10 years, however, an adjustable-rate mortgage may give you a better deal. The best loan term is entirely dependent on your situation and goals, so be sure to think about what’s important to you when choosing a mortgage.
