Watching North Korea for signs of lethal military action
North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, could take some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months after having shifted his policy to one of open hostility, U.S. officials say.
The officials have assessed that Kim’s recent declarations have been more aggressive than previous statements and should be taken seriously, but U.S. agencies have not detected concrete signs that North Korea is gearing up for combat or a major war.
Kim could carry out strikes in a way he thinks would avoid rapid escalation, U.S. officials said, such as when the North shelled a South Korean island in 2010. The two sides exchanged artillery fire, resulting in the reported deaths of troops on both sides and of civilians in the South, but both militaries soon stopped.
The Biden administration has been trying since 2021 to persuade North Korea to engage in diplomacy. But, one former intelligence analyst said, Kim felt betrayed and humiliated by Donald Trump during the failed diplomacy of 2019.
Background: On Wednesday, the North fired several cruise missiles from its west coast into the sea, the South Korean military said. On Jan. 14, Kim’s government said that it had tested a solid-fuel intermediate-range missile with a hypersonic warhead. And on Jan. 5, his military shelled waters near South Korean islands. Kim also abandoned a longtime official goal of peaceful reunification with South Korea, the state news media announced on Jan. 16.
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