This July, as heatwaves swept across Europe and the US, NASA and the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service both made a damning prediction: 2023 was set to be the hottest year on record. Now, with the Northern Hemisphere’s extreme summer heat and wildfires behind us, we’re still on track for that prediction to be correct.
Furthermore, a study led by renowned NASA climate scientist James Hansen and published in November puts us on track to blow past the threshold of 1.5-degree Celsius of warming compared to preindustrial levels this decade, rather than next, as previously thought. This threshold marks a tipping point for our planet, after which, scientists say, Earth will experience devastating and irreversible changes that threaten lives, livelihoods and habitats.
This is the scientific reality that politicians and officials representing countries from across the world must grapple with as they assemble at the end of this month in Dubai at the UN’s COP28 climate conference. Here, they will assess countries’ progress towards the meeting the goal laid out in the 2015 Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, while working how to wean society off fossil fuels.
Whether climate summits like COP28 are an effective way to tackle the climate crisis is a heavily debated topic in environmental circles. As an attendee at the two previous climate summits (COP27 in Egypt and COP26 in Scotland), I’ve witnessed firsthand the struggle between countries to reach agreements and the frustration of other participants at the lack of ambition.
But even as scientists have been clear with their warnings about climate change, they’ve also been clear about the solutions: The transition to renewable energy sources, such as solar, hydro and wind, must be prioritized to minimize the amount of greenhouse gasses being pumped into the atmosphere. Plus, if we’re to stand a chance of creating a livable future on our planet, there can be no new development of fossil fuel projects.
This isn’t exactly what politicians want to hear. While they’re onboard with embracing and expanding renewables, many governments, including the UK and the US, continue to greenlight new gas and oil fields. But when they come together at the UN Summit, other participants will demand they justify their actions on the global stage, as everyone attempts to get on the same page about how to tackle the most pressing problem of our time.
“Countries are far off track in meeting climate promises and commitments,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in a press conference in June. “I see a lack of ambition. A lack of trust. A lack of support. A lack of cooperation. And an abundance of problems around clarity and credibility.
“It’s time to wake up and step up,” he said.
As anyone will know who’s wrestled with a personal cost/benefit analysis on whether to install solar panels on their house or if it make sense to buy an EV, trying to make the best decisions for the future of our planet isn’t always straightforward. But gatherings such as COP represent our best chance of getting everyone on the same page.
What is COP28?
COP28 is the most important event on the climate calendar. The annual global meetup will take place this year in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from Thursday, Nov. 30, until Tuesday, Dec. 12 (although the event often runs over as officials work through the night to finalize agreements).
The United Nations has been hosting COP (which stands for “conference of the parties”) summits since 1995 as a way to gather the countries annually and assess progress in dealing with climate change. It’s at COPs that governments have signed some of the most significant climate agreements, including the 1995 Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Sultan Al Jaber will serve as president of COP28.
Not everyone is happy that COP28 is taking place in the UAE, a petrostate that’s one of the top five oil-producing countries in the world. This is compounded by the fact that the man the UAE has called upon to serve as president for this year’s event is Sultan Al-Jaber, the head of Adnoc, the UAE’s biggest oil company. Climate activist Greta Thunberg called the decision “completely ridiculous.”
Al-Jaber, who also serves as chairman of the UAE state-owned renewables company Masdar, told the Guardian in an interview last month that while he wasn’t the obvious man for the job, he was committed to making the summit a success. “My focus is to phase out emissions from everything,” he said. “Regardless of where it comes from.”
In the week leading up to the climate talks, the BBC and Centre for Climate Reporting revealed they had obtained copies of official briefing documents in which the UAE outlined plans to discuss fossil fuel deals with nations during preliminary COP28 talks.
Who will (and won’t) attend COP28?
COP28 is expected to gather 70,000 people, including many of the world’s most powerful and influential figures, together under one roof.
The White House confirmed in late December, just days before the summit was due to start, that President Joe Biden will not attend this year’s climate talks. Biden will be conspicuous by his absence after previously making high-profile stops at COP27 held last year in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, and at 2021’s COP26 held in Glasgow, Scotland. He’s also talked many times about putting the climate at the heart of his administration.
In his place, Special Presidential Envoy John Kerry will lead a US delegation to Dubai, including senators and members of Congress. Kerry will likely use the talks as an opportunity to resume discussions with China with the aim of reaching joint agreements between the two nations. He’ll also reportedly unveil a new global strategy for producing nuclear fusion energy.
Other notable people who are confirmed to be in attendance at COP28 include King Charles III, a longtime supporter of environmental causes who is due to make the opening address at the summit, and Pope Francis.
The pope’s visit to the UN climate summit — a first for any pontiff — follows his publication of a papal exhortation in October, in which urged governments to make COP28 a turning point. He called for decisive action and defended the actions of climate activists fighting for a just transition away from fossil fuels towards renewables.
Along with the officials from government delegations, climate activists and members of civil society and nongovernmental organizations play an important role at the UN climate summit. Many of them are normal people who have become involved in the climate justice movement through local and national campaigning.
