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  • The carmaker sold a record 484,507 in Q4 2023 but won’t match that figure in the latest quarter.
  • Elon Musk says a new directive to demonstrate FSD to all new Tesla owners will slow deliveries.
  • Tesla traditionally reports a surge in deliveries in the final days of a quarter.

Some Wall Street analysts believe Tesla could soon report its first quarterly year-on-year sales decline since the second quarter of 2020 due to slowing demand for EVs as well as high-interest rates.

A recent survey of analysts conducted by Bloomberg estimates that Tesla will have delivered approximately 453,964 vehicles in the first quarter of this year. If that figure is accurate, it will be down more than 6% from the brand’s record-breaking fourth quarter of 2023 where it sold 484,507 vehicles. Such a result would be a jump over the 422,875 units sold in Q1 2023 but it would not be a significant rise. Some analysts even believe Q1 2024’s sales could slip below the mark of 2023.

Read: Elon Musk’s Behavior Is Driving Away Customers

Tesla’s Q1 Delivery Figures Tipped To Fall From Last Year’s Heights

Deutsche Bank’s Emmanuel Rosner has cut his delivery estimate for Tesla twice over the past month and expects it to have ended Q1 with 414,000 vehicles sold, a 2% decline from the year prior, Bloomberg reports.

“We think worries over volume and earnings could further dampen investor sentiment and put significant pressure on the stock,” Rosner wrote in a recent report.

A recent directive issued by Elon Musk in late March could impact delivery figures for the quarter. The company’s boss has requested that every new Tesla customer in North America be taken for a test drive to experience the latest iteration of the brand’s Full Self-Driving system. Musk acknowledged that this will slow down the delivery process. It is also likely to slow the end-of-quarter surges in deliveries that Tesla has historically pushed for.

Anti-Musk sentiment could also hurt Tesla’s sales. A recent study revealed that 42% of Americans had an unfavorable view of Musk last year, an increase from 34% in 2022. The company’s reputation has continued to worsen in the Netherlands, France, the UK, and Australia this year. Tesla was also given a consideration score of 31% in the study, down considerably from the 70% in 2021.